Hand Analysis

I had this conversation with Marshall during work today, figured I'd post it because I found it interesting and it gives good insights into how I approach hand analysis. A few notes:
1) We are discussing the hands Adam posted here.
2) This is an IM conversation, as such it is somewhat scattered, riddled with spelling errors, and pretty badly formatted.
3) It's quite long, but should read pretty quickly.

me: wow that KK hand is mega spewy
Marshall: i dunno
you mean because of the ace?
me: i c/f that turn tbh
yes
Marshall: wow
me: what do they ever call down with
that you are ahead of?
KQ?
QJ?
vs nits you will never get paid with worse than KK there imo
Marshall: you make great points sir
but
hm
looking again more closely here
me: like they have to have QJ with Js
Marshall: at first view i just considered it standard
me: and even then im not firing river
Marshall: ok
so
firing the turn is not great but ok
me: yeah
you can rep and A hand get a Q to fold
Marshall: i htink any big spade
is calling
me: but you dont wnat that
Marshall: J9 calls
most Q;s call
me: yes
Marshall: obv lots of stuff youa re behind calls/raises
me: raises?
i dunno about that
i dont think a tight passive
player raises the turn with worse here
Marshall: well
cmon now
you know what i am saying here
me: no i dont
Marshall: im saying that he GIVES YOU ACTION
me: haha ok
i thought you meant would raise if you led turn
Marshall: re read
im saying
that there are alot of hands he will call with behind
(lots of spades, any Q, J9, etc)
me: yes
Marshall: and that there are lots of ahnds that he will either call or riase with as well which WE are behind
any 2 pair, any Ace etc
me: right
Marshall: i dont know if he raises or calls but whatever
me: but if we bet turn and just get called
wtf do we do on a blank river?
Marshall: it depends on which he has
right so my point was
that betting the turn seems fine
but if we get called
i think we just HAVE to slow down on the river
and frankly
it feels like a c/g
c/f
me: yes
and i'd rather just c/f turn here
than try to get ~thin value then be in a really shitty river spot
Marshall: really?
me: yes
Marshall: you would check fold that turn?
damn nit
ahah
this guy has Js
semis teh turn
and we jsut pitch it in?
me: bet/bet/check opens us to get super outplayed on the ruver
and i dont think many villains semi in this game
they just check behind
Marshall: fair enough, but your logic doesnt make sense
"i dont want to open my self up to getting outplayed on the river, so ill do it on the turn instead"
i mean
what if on the flop he has called with bottom pair
me: i dont think we get enough value from times we get called on the turn and it goes c/c on the river
Marshall: he has like 78
me: to make up for the times we get raised on the turn or have to c/f the river
Marshall: or he has like KT or just random shit
me: then he just calls the turn
and then we check the river
and they see that we give up, and that "they have to bet to win"
and they bet
and we have to fold
Marshall: ya its a shitty spot
thing is
me: then why put yourself in it
Marshall: we can come up with
scenarios all over the map imo
like we haev NO range for this guy
me: i dont think the action goes bet, call, check, check enough
for it to be +ev
Marshall: why
if you have QT here
me: then the turn goes check, check
and we can check/call river
if we bet two streets then check the river
i think we get raised waaaay to much to make money on the turn bet
the times we get called by worse on the turn then go to showdown are way outweighed by the times we are either behind or get owned on the river
Marshall: thinking
well we cant check call river right
i mean we started with 50bbs
me: not without some sick soul read
that we dont have
Marshall: ok
so we cf river?
really hoping for a showdown
but ya this guy has to have been in there VERY VERY
Light to get a showdown
me: yeah
so for sure there are worse hands that can call a turn bet from us here
but there are lots of better hands
and there are lots of times we c/f to those worse hands on any river
Marshall: so
are you postulating
that
if we check the frankly terrible turn
me: continuing to put money in this pot, its -ev
imo
the spot is just too shitty
Marshall: and get bet into, that we are basically behind so often that its just a fold
?
me: yes
Marshall: k
makes sense to me
me: if we are forcing ourselves into a c/f river
Marshall: so
like
me: we dont make enough money when we get called and win showdown
to make up for when we are either behind or get bluffed
Marshall: put simply, we now have a bluff catcher
me: yes
100%
and bluff catching isnt profitable here imo
do you disagree?
Marshall: i do not
i think we have to use some serious imagination to come up
with stuff that this guy is bluffing with
me: yes
unless its like Js9x
and he bets cause he feels he has to win the hand and thats the only way how
and we have to fold to that anyway
on the river
Marshall: (btw this is all
assuming no real read on the guy)
me: yeah
totally
Marshall: even the slightest bit nitty
and its a super easy fold i think
if he is a little actiony
its harder
me: ya
Marshall: but i think you are right, still too poor of a spot
me: but i assume unknowns at 2/4 are nitty
until they show me otherwise
Marshall: i just dont hate betting the turn that much
i think that just like TONS of hands just fold out
even the ones you beat
but the river is ugly
me: yeah
we are just in such a bad spot if we get called
so i nit it up here and c/f
shitty spot obv, but thats playing OOP for you
Marshall: ya
exactly
ok now put up everything we discussed in his comments
me: obv the biggest mistake was not getting dealt KK otb
haha
Marshall: ahahha
Sent at 1:26 PM on Wednesday
me: what about his third hand?
Sent at 1:27 PM on Wednesday
Marshall: i think i commented on it (on my iphone)
oh i am calling that
me: lol
its sick that i agree with you
Marshall: like snap that off and pump your fist while you do it
me: that its correct to stack off for ~130BBs with top pair
but yeah
this guys has KJ, KQ, QJ all day
Marshall: it is sick
but like
totally
me: or even JJ
Marshall: or any draw you can think of
or AK
i mean
seriously his range is wiiiide here without any other info
and look at his stack
he didnt get that by being a nit..
me: haha yeah
me: what do you think about raising pre in hand 1?
to like .22
i expect CO to just call most of the time
and fold to a cbet
Sent at 1:37 PM on Wednesday
Marshall: im honestly not sure
i am at a point of transformation here
3 days ago, i would have said
raise is good
but
today i might just call there
me: and just set mine?
Marshall: well
me: or to try and steal postflop
Marshall: just take a flop
ya
both
me: but the thing there is
Marshall: i mean it goes against how i think about poker
me: we dont hit sets that often, so we'll be doing a lot more stealing
Marshall: but my gut is telling me its more profit
me: and i'd rather steal more money that was put in pre
but im not sure
Sent at 1:44 PM on Wednesday
Marshall: ya i am def more apt
to just raise i up OTB
i have still been doing that, but just not every time
they usually just fold out anyway
Sent at 1:46 PM on Wednesday
me: just commented on his blog
with some thoughts on hand 2 mostly
Marshall: cool
me: "I went crazy pre with 99 in the SB -- I found it wise to 4-bet all in, leading to the ecstatic BB's call with QQ"
does he mean that it was blind vs blind here?
if so thats being super ROTy imo
Marshall: you konw i couldnt tell
me: bvb im pretty sure i shove 99 all day
Marshall: i mean it could have been raise from EP > 3bet > he shoves out of blinds
me: yeah
which is terrible
Marshall: i wouldnt mind seeing that hand myself
me: but like if it went he raise, bb reraise, he shove
pretty standard
Marshall: i mean my initial
reaction was that he was being super rotty as well
but without more data i have no clue
standard?
really
me: yes
Marshall: i mean a shove would be a massive overbet
me: well
Marshall: i dont think thats standard in any way
its not a tourney
me: stack size dependant
Marshall: i mean how do you mean standard
ok assuming 100bbs
i raise to 3bbs, you make it 10, i shove?
me: i think 4 betting the sb is completely fine there BvB
no
Marshall: wow really? you do?
me: im assuming that the shove is not some gross over shove, i'm saying that 4 betting there is standard
Marshall: i dont like it much
me: BB shows up with many, many worse hands
Marshall: i dont like 4betting there
me: 22-88, lots of aces
Marshall: like what
lots of overs...
i would say
me: i mean he thinks your full of shit cause you just raised from the SB
Marshall: range for villain if i raise in sb and he 3bets is like
AA-99, AK AQ AJs
me: yeah and he folds many of those overs
Marshall: thast about it
me: wow really?
Marshall: ya
me: i think its like 22+, ATo+
Marshall: give or take a bit
me: 89, 9T
Marshall: wow
no chance dude
play more
read less 2+2
maybe at 2-4 or 5-10 thats the
case
but these guys are super rarely repoppign 44 or 55 type hands
AT they flat
AXs they flat
they just flat like almost everything
they are still very passive
me: even BvB?
Marshall: totally
me: gross
Marshall: they dont even konw what htat means
ya
they play bad dude
but they do
and if you are giving them that much credit for skill
you are missing out i think
me: haha well im definitely missing out
Marshall: also how sick is playing 99 post flop OOP on a 4 bet pot?
me: i can see that even over my tiny sample size
Marshall: you can see what
me: no sicker than flatting with it and playing OOP in a 3bet pot
try to take it down pre and move on
Marshall: way sicker
wait
so you "try to take it down pre" but then you get called..
how do you "move on" now
me: yeah it sucks if you get called
Marshall: i mean there are just no good flops for us that dont have a 9ball in them
me: but it sucks if you just call
just as much
Marshall: no
me: at least if your 4bet gets called you have the lead and can just shove
Marshall: it sucks much less
me: just because we have less money in?
Marshall: right
i mean we can still go with a favorable flop if we feel like it
flop comes 8 high and we can just go with it or whatever
but we can check fold a shitty flop and not really give away that much
8bbs or so
9
whatever
but if we 4bet, get called and have to fold at any point we are out potentially 25-30bbs
and i just cant imagine a good flop here
me: yeah i guess no one really 3-bet/folds in these games
Marshall: 99 isnt that good
its a pretty marginal hand right
me: i know it isnt that good, which is why i'd prefer to be aggro pre and just take it down
Marshall: vs a 3bet
me: but your right that makes us worse off when we get called
Marshall: see
the thing is
i fee like if i am goign to take the line of
4bet-rep something huge and make him fold pre
i would rather just have the old airball
or have that huge hand if we think this guyis only doing the 3bet with a monster
me: yeah i can see where you're coming from
theres more value in seeing a flop cheap-ish with a hand as mid range as 99
than just blasting people away
Marshall: ya i mean if we get it all in vs like AK
we are like 54% or something with 99
fair enough
me: yes
Marshall: but if we do get called even if we have like 32
we are still 33%
its a big difference, but one hand has showdown value where the other doesnt
if we can get a fold from a 4bet with the 23
me: yeah
Marshall: we make mad cribs type cash
me: haha
Marshall: if we get called by that hand, we are not in terrible shape
33% sucks
but combined with our probalby ample FE
you could do worse
but if we turn our 99 into a bluff
we are sorta punting away that 54% or whatever by just shoving
me: thats the whole polarizing vs merging thing right
and we dont want to range merge 4-bets
Marshall: well
no
i mean
me: we want to do it with monsters or air
Marshall: right
ok ya i see how you mean
thats right
but
merging is more talking about hte practice of doing it with monsters and air so that we cant be exploited and so that we can ensure action on our big hand shoves sometimes
where here, assuming its a one off move against a guy we wont see again, its just more a question of like "we have showdown equity with 99, why turn this into a bluff when we acutally can just win sometimes"
me: fair enough
Marshall: my main concern is just postflop though
i dont give this guy enough credit to know what he is doign
but like
we are just sailing without a compass here
i mean
lets just do random flops
and see how we feel
as an exercise
me: well with 99 an overcard will come up like ~40% of the time
Marshall: ah ok cool, thats gtk
me: i tihnk thats it anyway
me: in a vacuum there are 7x4 undercards, 5x4 overs, so 28 and 20
Marshall: ok
me: so of the 50 possible cards, 20 are overs
Marshall: here are some flops
lets assume that we 4bet and got called
there is 2.00 in the pot
we have effectives of 3.00
8s4s4h
best flop evar?
me: yes
fist pump
Marshall: get it in
?
me: yeah totally
Marshall: we are never checking
but just shove 3 into 2 and get called by?
me: we could bet out $1
and call a shove
but then it sucks to just get called
Marshall: now i like that much better
well
does it?
how about we bet 1.75
yes it commits us
but
me: seems fine
Marshall: we really dont want a fold here
i mean if he has AA he is just going regardless
but if we are good, and if we are betting we are assuming we are good, then we want a call
me: any overpair gets it in vs us on this board
Marshall: but we dont want to price in overs or overs/fd
me: yeah
Marshall: yes
but we are just going with it right?
me: 1.75 is good
yes
if we bet the flop we cant fold ever
Marshall: lead out call
ok
but the key here
is to disregard when we are behind
we have made our decision if we bet
so we need to bet enough to price out overs
and probably enough to price out overs+FD
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/simulate.jsp?g=he&b=8s4h4s&d=&h1=AsKh&h2=9c9d&h3=&h4=&h5=
so he needs 3:1 to call with 2 overs
me: and 1 spade
which matters, even if its just a little
Marshall: so if we bet 1 buck
well he has numerous backdoors here
spade, running pair
but whatever it all factors in
so
if we bet 1.00
we are pricing him in exactly
laying him 3:1
so thats bad
me: yes
Marshall: we need to bet anything above it
me: need to bet more
Marshall: as much as he will call
me: i like 1.75 a lot
Marshall: ok
1.50-1.75
now if he has overpair we are just boned and calling off
me: yes
Marshall: now
consider this
(alhtough range wise its very narrow)
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/simulate.jsp?g=he&b=8s4h4s&d=&h1=AsKs&h2=9c9d&h3=&h4=&h5=
me: yeah overs + fd is priced in
even if we shove
Marshall: right
cause its 3:5
me: yeah
Marshall: and no matter what we cant price him out
me: yeah
Marshall: ok
just intersting, not really all that relevant
next flop
KhJd3D
me: terrible for us
Marshall: awful
me: and we cant cbet without commiting over 1/2 our stack
Marshall: c/f?
me: so, c/f?
yeah
Marshall: right
me: have to right
Marshall: i think so
i mean
we took our shot at this pot pre
but it didnt work
and i htikn we just cant follow up with more bets
only exception
would be a small bet
like
.20
me: haha
Marshall: it looks super strong and almost never has to work
me: yeah
and then if we get called
just shut down
we can be one of those donks and just min bet all 3 streets
that would be fun
Marshall: ha
we arent doing that
but like betting .30 here or soemthing can be sick value
i mean dude might fold QQ there
seriously
put yourself in his shoes
SB raises
you have QQ
you 3bet
he 4bets pot
hm
you can never shove >get called > be happy
so you call
flop comes like that
villain bets .30 into 1.00
sorry 2.00
you dont have a draw
so you are either good now or not
if he has a K you are in jail
its not a super easy call imo
me: haha
thats sick and i like it
Marshall: you dont want to call here and then face anohter bet and have to fold
ya
and seriously you risk .30 to win 2.00
now
if you are playing against good players this play will annihilate
you unless you merge well
but against randoms
seems good.
just only works a few times
ok next flop
Ad8d3h
very "normal" flop
super polarizing flop too
me: i cbet/get it in on an A high no other overs flop
Marshall: but we cnat get all in here ever
you are a maniac
me: wel
Marshall: are you out of your mind
me: i love the cbet here
and once we do that
Marshall: ya i do too
me: you cant fold
ever
Marshall: huh
are you crazy
you bet a 1.00 and he shoves and you just snap off the rest with 99????
me: a reasonable cbet means we've invested over 1/2 our stack in the hand
Marshall: yes
we have
and we have half of it back stil...
50bbs
like he shoves
we snap and he rolls KQ??
GOTCHU SUCKA
me: haha
Marshall: lol never happens. hell he shoves with JJ and we snap and cry
dude
me: fair enough
Marshall: bet fold
cmon
pure epic spew to just shove the rest in there right?
you certainly dont want to make it a habit, putting 50% in
and then folding
but man
me: so we just fold getting 5:1.5
Marshall: is that what we get?
me: we cbet 1.50
he shoves, we have 1.50 back
i think its better than that
Marshall: im saing we cbet a buck
half pot
me: 2 + 1.50 + 3
Marshall: not 1.50
me: ok
Marshall: so we are getting 2.5:1 right?
me: 3:1
Marshall: ok
right
me: ok you can fold that
Marshall: 6 total, we have 2 back
ya i can fold that
me: i was assuming a cbet of 1.50
Marshall: plus odds dont really play in here do they?
this is clearly wa/wb
me: ya
Marshall: i mean we arent drawing
me: we need like 10:1 to be ev neutral vs any ace
Marshall: if we were getting 8:1 i could agree
ya
exactly
i mean we could start talking
about % of time this guy just has pure air
but at 3:1 with the line the villain took
me: ok, so we bet half pot/fold
Marshall: we have like no chance here EXCEPT against pure air
like the purest of airballs
me: what % does the cbet work?
Marshall: i think he folds out any non A hand
so a lot
me: like if we have villain on tt+, aq+
Marshall: KK mucks
me: yeah
Marshall: ya we are crushing him with that bet
AK/AQ/AA goes
me: 1 sec
Marshall: but all the rest probably fold
k
me: need to think about this
Marshall: k
i am just spitting out my thoughts here, and how i play
me: 12 AK, 12 AQ, 3 AA = 27 hands that go with it and own us
6 each tt-kk
Marshall: 2:1
1:!
1
me: yeah
24:27
Marshall: 24 hands
27 hands
right
ok
me: so
not that curshing
but if he folds 1:1 and we win 2:1
still worth it
Marshall: fair, but i will say that i consder AQ less likely
like would take at least half of his AQ's away
me: yeah thats reasonable
Marshall: keep his suiteds or something
me: and its still a profitable play f you include all of them
Marshall: ok
but how does it hash out when he shoves
i mean his range UTTERLY crushes us in every way right
like literally every hand in his range has us smoked
AK ~AQ, TT JJ QQ KK AA
me: yeah
we cant call a shove on an A
high flop
we have to just concede our 50 BBs
Marshall: but more importantly keep our other 50bbs
me: yeah
Marshall: http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/simulate.jsp?g=he&b=Ad8d3h&d=&h1=AK%2C+AQ%2C+AA%2C+JJ%2C+KK%2C+TT%2C+QQ&h2=9c9d&h3=&h4=&h5=
89/11
essentially just setmining on the flo
p
me: so whats the cutoff for cbetting?
two overs and i dont think we can do it
Marshall: cutoff?
like you mean what flops?
me: and if the one over is T-Q i dont think we can do it
yeah
Marshall: hm
me: like we want flops with no overs
Marshall: well any A
we can agree on that right
me: or 1 over thats an A or K
i tihnk thats my limit
Marshall: some exceptions
but basically any A
me: yes
Marshall: ya i agree
A or K or none
ok next flop
Jc3d6s
me: c/f
Marshall: see this is normally a great flop
me: we already decided we arent cbetting this
yeah
but its not here
Marshall: well wait now
but
what about just value?
we are ahead of all AK/AQ combos
me: yes
Marshall: bet fold this?
bet for value/cbet, fold to his raise cause he has KK QQ JJ too often
AA
or are you just jumping ship here
me: i dont know
depends on villain
Marshall: haha
me: and what i tihnk they would do with AK
Marshall: head = ready to explode?
me: like if theyre just super stubborn and decide to go with their overs
then fml
Marshall: but you are getting it in good in that case
me: yeah
but you can call a shove
vs their range
Marshall: but stressful for sure
me: can't*
Marshall: right
if they get aggro
we cant go
me: yeah
Marshall: its super interesting
becasue
me: so if i think they are stubborn or aggro
i just abandon ship
Marshall: if they had JJ KK QQ AA then they shouldnt be raising right?
me: even though vs them im more likely to get it in good
i still dont want to get it in
hmm thats a good question
i tihnk once we cbet they would go with and overpairs
i mean if we 4bet pre and are putting in 1/2 our stack
they cant be too worried about blowing us off out hand
unless they read us 100% for AK
Marshall: fair
me: i mean how strong do we look here
Marshall: right
4bet pre > lead out is wicked strong
me: haha its funny because i keep going back and forth
like its super strong
maybe enough to make JJ or QQ fold when they were just being stubborn pre
but then if we want to try and do that we need to cbet a wider range of boards, not just A high ones
Marshall: well i think at these stakes lets just take that off the table
board comes all low and I think QQ just goes about 70% of the time
me: probably
they were just looking for a no A, no K board to go off on
so then, how does this all change if we just flat a 3bet pre with 99
Marshall: exactly
me: we just play it more passive and c/r any all unders board
or try to rep an A if one flops?
Marshall: see i dont like the cr here
me: then what
Marshall: i just shudder at him having AK
me: donk or c/c?
Marshall: and getting free card to peel
well its not donking, we were 4bettor pre
me: no im saying if we called a 3bet pre
and didnt take the 4bet line
Marshall: oh sorry
me: then how does this play out different?Y
Marshall: ok let me rewind here
ok
so we just flat
me: no now maybe like .80 in the pot
instead of 2.00 or whatever
Marshall: right
ok so which flop
me: AXX
Marshall: i mean it is that dependent right
ok
me: As3h8c
Marshall: A 8 3
i just lead still
me: so donk?
Marshall: yes
me: interesting
Marshall: i mean
my thought is just
that he will fold so many hands that beat us
but only if we can bet them
me: yeah
Marshall: i mean c/r looks stronger
me: i like the donk here
Marshall: and maybe is a better line
but
me: which is cool cause i like to donk bet
Marshall: its less risk for us
to donk
monetarily
i think either is fine though
ooo
i just figured the optimal
me: min bet?
Marshall: check > minraise
me: haha
sick
Marshall: check minraise is sick
risk little
but non A cant really call unless they are heroic
me: what does it do that a regular c/r doesnt?
like do we get the same FE for less risk?
or less FE/less risk?
Sent at 3:02 PM on Wednesday
me: yeah i really like that
and if they check behind we can just fire any non-broadway turn right
Sent at 3:03 PM on Wednesday
Marshall: right
then they have to have set of aces basically
or we win
me: ok
so 644 flop
same thing?
or donk?
or c/c for value?
to get more out of AK or set up a turn c/r
Sent at 3:06 PM on Wednesday
Marshall: sorry back
hm great question
this is a very hard question to answer
i think might just check fold to significant bet
me: so we let AK, AQ, AJ just cbet and take it down?
as longs as they cbet big enough
Marshall: i think so
i mean
im not saying its right
im just saying like i am not going to just call 1.00
and then still be lost on the turn
but it feels like enough of his range just snaps off if i either bet or try for a c/r
and i ahve no great outcomes if we get it all i here
me: yeah
so here
Marshall: i mean
me: we're worse off than when we 4bet right
we just invested less?
Marshall: explain
me: well we said earlier when we 4 bet and see this flop
just cbet/get it in
whereas here
we're kinda lost and have to at least really think about c/f
Marshall: no
cbet fold
me: on the 644 flop?
Marshall: oh on 644
did we do this flop already?
me: we did 844
effectively the same
i tihnk the real answer may just be
fold pre in the sb
i mean we have super marginal spots like this where you can flop an overpair and still need to c/f
if we call a 3bet
and if we 4bet we prob arent getting called by worse, unless we're flipping
Marshall: ya
but folding in teh SB with 99 is awful
me: is it really?
Marshall: is that what you meant?
i mean
i think we jus traise
and if you want, we can fold to the 3bet
me: if its 3bet to us
Marshall: OH
hm
me: i dont mean open folding
thats gross and wrong
Marshall: set mine ftw?
ok
ya i was like huh?
me: but like, purely set mining is -ev
especially oop where it can be hard to actualy get all our money in if we hit
Marshall: ya it def can be
espeically against these passive fucking nits