I wanted to blog about overplaying 1 pair hands in 4NL, because I think it's something that's very easy to do at these stakes and can be very unprofitable, but I don't have enough hands in my database to do that statical analysis I really wanted. I will say this: of the 2500 NLHE hands I've played on Cake, in hands which I have gone to showdown with 1 pair, or two pair on a paired board, I am -$20.93 overall, and for every dollar I've call on the river with one pair type hands, I've lost $0.28. It's really easy to get too in love with top pair good kicker against the average 4NL donk, but it's a leak and something you should be aware of. I'm sure I'll write more about this later, but like I said the sample size just isn't there yet.
So instead, I wanted to put up some really interesting spots from the 4PLO tables tonight.
Folding top set (I have AA94) is not something I'm used to or like doing, but I am good on that river somewhere between never to never ever.
Folding aces to a single flop bet sucks too (AA66), but the pot-sized donk from a standard/passive player here is super strong and I don't think it's ever a bluff.
This was a crying call and really tough for me to make given villains line. I'm never raising that river ever, but I did wonder after the hand about the merits of shoving the turn. I obviously never get QJxx to fold, so by calling down I potentially save myself 50BBs when I'm drawing dead, but shoving the turn gets a lot of value from sets and heart or club draws. I have 67 which makes it unlikely that villain is going nuts with the bottom end of the straight, and the pot lead on the turn seemed really strong and looks a lot more like the nuts than a set/draw to me.
I'm also not sure about this flop play. The turn is an easy shove when basically the only thing that changes is I pick up a redraw, but I think there's a case to be made for shoving the flop. It's hard for villain to have me beat here as AA/KK are unlikely (that given I have one of each and the preflop play) and there are few playable 77xx hands. Shoving the flop gets called by many worse hands here, but I think that calling and shoving a blank turn gets called by the same range of worse hands, only at much better odds for me.
This is super gross. Given my stack size and previous history with villain (see hands 1 and 3 above), I call here, but to be honest I have no idea what I do in this spot versus an unkown at a full table. There are a ton of playable 89xx and 79xx, and 3 handed 77xx and 88xx hands are for sure possible too. Great card to bet for villain, crying call for me.
This hand I should have bet the river, but I chickened out. Villain wasn't doing anything out of line so I didn't expect a bluff from a busted open-ender and there are lots of worse two pair hands that can call me. KKxx, AJxx, and J9xx are all possible, but I think bet/folding that river is a better plan than check/calling.
Overall I had a +$3 session that was 200 hands of PLO long, not exactly crushing it but I felt like I played well and had a few really fun spots.
Is this thing on?
11 years ago
4 comments:
Folding top set, agreed. Just not EV+ to call there against a guy repping an obvious flush.
Folding aces. Yup. Bad flop. Happens all the time.
No need for a crying call IMO. He's taking a pretty standard line. He bets the flop, and you raise. He flats to wait for a blank to peel off. If a J or Heart comes off then he can re-evaluate. As is 3c is totally nothing so now he wants to get as much in as quickly as possible on every street. I don't mind the raise on the flop but after a call I'm done with the hand unless I get a showdown for free. If he has anything that you need to protect your half-sucker straight against then he's not leading out on the later streets after flatting the flop.
For flop play hand, if you raised pre then I'd definitely pot him on that flop. He almost certainly doesn't have AAxx or KKxx (not only because he flatted but also because of the decreased chance due to two Aces and two Kings already being accounted for) whereas you can rep that you do. It's up to him if he wants to chase his draw at that point. Possibly a set of sevens but if that happens you have outs at least. In this case the hand probably plays out the same in the end since he looks willing to go busto with non-nut flush.
Super gross hand is another reason why I prefer to buy in short. I'm already pot committed after I flop the joint and the vast majority, if not all, of my chips are already in the middle by the time the board pairs. If he sucked out then he paid an awful price to do so with zero implieds.
Set of Tens hand, it does seem unlikely for you not to fire on the river...or ever for that matter. You can at least put out a blocker bet then fold if he raises you but as is you're allowing him to pot it on the end and you would have to fold. There's enough money in the middle as is, I'd pot the flop then either take it down there. Or at least pound the Turn after you've fluffed up the pot with your flop bet.
Just my thoughts on those hands but I'm no expert. I'm still trying to figure the the stupid game out myself.
RE: Crying call. I think just giving up with the second nuts is too nitty in a four handed game against an active villain. There are lots of sets and two pair + draw combos that villain can show up with, especially when a backdoor club draw comes in on the turn.
RE: Flop play. If villain doesnt have AAxx/KKxx here why do I want to rep that I do? Seems like a spot where a bet folds worse and gets called or shoved on by better. The real question for me is how to get the most money from the draw here, as I'm pretty sure I have the best hand. If villain will call down to the river with clubs then I should be raising for value. There are lots of turns that can either shut down my action or be scary enough to get me out of the hand, so maybe this is a spot where I can bet for protection. Lots of reasons to either bet or call, but I don't think I should rep AA or KK just because I can.
RE: Gross hand. I don't like buying in short when there are deep stacks at the table. Having to make harder decisions is not worth leaving money on the table by not buying in full, imo.
RE: Set of tens. "There's enough money in the middle as is, I'd pot the flop then either take it down there" I hate this line of thinking. I flop the nuts, regardless of pot size why would I want to end the hand when I can try to get more value on later streets? The key to beating these stakes, imo, is getting as much value from your big hands as possible, not just taking down flops. I got a little scared at the two overs that came, but I do think a blocker on the river is in order. Bet/fold > check/call.
Top set is behind broadway and any two clubs so to characterize it as the second nuts is stretching it a bit. Given the check calls on the flop and turn it's just too consistent a line of looking for a flush then catching it IMO.
I'm not saying that you need to rep AA or KK, I'm saying that you are very likely ahead and favored unless maybe he has a super draw (I don't know the numbers on that). If someone is willing to bet on the come then I would charge him more since players who want to bet on draws are fine getting it all in on the flop.
Playing short stacked has other advantages than just not having to make hard decisions. Personally, I just am not worried about those cases where I might stack someone for more if I were deeper stacked since it comes at the expense of higher variance and having to dump hands if a bad card comes out since I'm already committed to the hand. Just a different approach.
I am more inclined to agree with you in Hold'em about milking a big hand but in Omaha the lead can change drastically at each turn of the card and even top sets are quite vulnerable. I'd rather take the bird in the hand when I can unless I have a monster like top boat or quads when I want someone to catch up.
I was refering to the hand where I had J7xx for the second nut straight and called down, not the hand where I folded top set.
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